pourya souri Articles List

List of Articles pourya souri

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1 - An Analysis on Stationarity of Consumer Price Index (CPI) Time Series in Iran and Using ARIMA Model to Forecast For a Future Time Period
کاظمی kazemi pourya souri mehdi ghazanfari mir saman pishvaee

This study aims to determine stationarity or non-stationarity of time series data of consumer price index (CPI) in 1980-2012 (i.e. 1359-1391 based on Iranian calendar) time period where 2004 (i.e. 1383 Iranian calendar) is the base year. applying the appropriate methods More

This study aims to determine stationarity or non-stationarity of time series data of consumer price index (CPI) in 1980-2012 (i.e. 1359-1391 based on Iranian calendar) time period where 2004 (i.e. 1383 Iranian calendar) is the base year. applying the appropriate methods to detect the trend of time series and determine the autoregressive, moving average and autoregressive moving average of CPI time series autoregressive, moving average and autoregressive moving average of CPI time series, we perform unit root test that results in non-stationarity of CPI time series. using the Augmented Dicky-Fuller test, it is concluded that the time series has only one unit root. therefore, an ARIMA model is developed for the time series data. using Portman-Teau test, the adequacy of the model and its pure randomness is proved. Finally, we use the proposed ARIMA model to forecast future data from 2013 to 2022 (i.e. 1392 to 1401 Iranian calendar) in 80 and 95 percent levels of confidence. Manuscript profile
Open Access Article
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2 - Developing Indicators for assessing The Status of Iran’s Natural Gas Export Using Energy Demand Security Approach
Hadi Sahebi pourya souri

Iran is the second-largest proved natural gas reserve holder in the world, behind Russia and holds 17% of the world's proved natural gas reserves and more than one-third of OPEC's reserves. Iran is also among the five major producers of natural gas in the world. Accordi More

Iran is the second-largest proved natural gas reserve holder in the world, behind Russia and holds 17% of the world's proved natural gas reserves and more than one-third of OPEC's reserves. Iran is also among the five major producers of natural gas in the world. According to rich reserves of natural gas, high success rate of natural gas exploration, and increasing growth of fossil fuel demand in highly import dependent countries like China, India, European Union, and Turkey all of which are potential markets for Iran natural gas export, there is a promising outlook for natural gas export of Iran and growth of resultant revenue in upcoming years. but due to Iran special geopolitical position, being enclosed by two strategic resources of natural gas and crude oil, i.e. Caspian Sea and Persian Gulf, and terrorist attacks and other unrests in Middle East, Central Asia, and Caucasus, securing energy demand and increasing the volume of Iran natural gas export has turned into a critical issue. In this research, after investigating Iran’s natural gas production, reserves, and export markets, seven quantitative indicators have developed according to political, economic, and infrastructural dimensions to assess Iran’s natural gas export whether in the form of LNG or via the pipeline. Policymakers of the energy economics field can analyze Iran’s current and potential gas export markets in recent years or in the upcoming years under different scenarios by using indicators introduced in this research and collecting the required data so that they can adopt appropriate policies for enhancing the energy export demand security of Iran particularly natural gas. Manuscript profile

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List of Articles pourya souri